2025 was a peculiar year for filmmaking. This is probably the weakest field of contenders in the post-pandemic years. The top half of the list features some exceptional movies, but it’s definitely not a year where practically any film could win.

I went back and forth on my prediction for Best Picture several times over the past few weeks, but I always returned to the conventional pick. Sinners is an outstanding film and would be a worthy winner. This year is a rare year where my favorite is also favored to win.

For a while, I thought this was a three-picture race between Sinners, One Battle After Another, and Hamnet, the latter serving as a more conventional pick opposite a genre film and one based on a Thomas Pynchon novel.

But I think this field shares a lot in common with the 2023 nominees. Everything Everywhere All at Once was heavily favored while also being a genre film and a box office hit, without a clear contender at the front of the pack. I don’t think OBAA made enough of a mark to steal Sinners’ thunder.

Here is my list, ranked by my own personal preference, not by likelihood of victory.

1. Sinners – A horror film has not won Best Picture since The Silence of the Lambs, the year I was born. Ryan Coogler’s work is exceptional, an inviting sense of world-building that feels genuinely lived-in. Michael B. Jordan has never been better, and longtime underrated actor Delroy Lindo is finally earning recognition for his delightful performance. Horror is a well-trodden genre. Many have drawn comparisons between Sinners and From Dusk Till Dawn, which perhaps makes it even more impressive that Coogler managed to bring such an impressive perspective to the table.

2. The Secret Agent – Wagner Moura would probably be my pick for Best Actor if I had a vote. The Secret Agent is a delightful period piece about the political turmoil of the military dictatorship in Brazil. Director Kleber Mendonça Filho plays around with the nature of memory a lot, constantly defying audience expectations throughout the narrative. The film takes some big swings that don’t all land, but it’s a highly ambitious work that shouldn’t be missed.

Ian’s full review of The Secret Agent.

3. Marty Supreme – Putting aside Chalamet’s obnoxious comments on ballet and opera (that went viral after Oscar voting closed, mitigating the damage), Marty Supreme is really, really good. Director Josh Safdie did a wonderful job in his first solo effort without his brother Benny since 2008. Chalamet is mesmerizing as a complete sleaze, which may not have taken that much acting. The tension in the pacing never lets up, an exhausting ride that still flies through a hearty runtime. The biggest knock against the film is that it did not surpass the highs of Safdie’s last film, Uncut Gems, while revisiting many of the same devices.

Ian’s full review of Marty Supreme.

4. One Battle After Another – As a huge fan of Paul Thomas Anderson and Thomas Pynchon, OBAA felt kind of like a fever dream of everything I wanted in a movie. Its imposing 162-minute runtime absolutely flies by. It’s pretty laughable that Teyana Taylor wasn’t nominated for Best Actress, the heart and soul of a movie starring juggernauts like Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn. DiCaprio puts forth his most interesting effort in years in what’s largely a supporting role. I really liked OBAA, and wouldn’t be upset if it won Best Picture. Like Marty Supreme, it loses a few points for not coming close to PTA’s best work, particularly There Will Be Blood, Magnolia, and The Master.

Ian’s full review of One Battle After Another.

5. Sentimental Value – Renate Reinsve first blew me away with 2022’s The World Person in the World. She puts forth excellent work here opposite Stellan Skarsgård, in one of the best performances of his career, in an intimate narrative about the remnants of a family long splintered. While mostly in Norwegian, Elle Fanning has a superb supporting role as an actress hoping to play Reinsve’s character in a film directed by her father. Director Joachim Trier makes a pretty outstanding case for why artists often make shitty parents. As an avid fan of foreign film, I was delighted to see Sentimental Value nominated, something I wish the Academy would do more of instead of giving nominations to lackluster releases by perennial contenders. Sentimental Value also gets bonus points for featuring the song “Same Old Scene” by Roxy Music, off a lackluster album I’d been playing heavily before watching the film, which was quite a bizarre coincidence.

6. Hamnet – I was pretty shocked not to see Hamnet in the Best Cinematography category, especially over Frankenstein. Director Chloé Zhao’s meditation on grief is less about William Shakespeare, than Anne Hathaway, with a fantastic lead performance by Jessie Buckley. Hamnet delivers some truly compelling perspectives on the creative process that you don’t see much in the countless Hollywood narratives centered on writers. There’s a lot to admire in the way Zhao moves through her work, but much of the pieces of Hamnet work better than the collective final product.

7. Train Dreams – Director Cliff Bentley heavily channels Terence Malick in the BP race’s other major commentary on grief. Joel Edgerton is exquisite as a laborer frequently away from his family in the late 1800s, a narrative that spans 80 years. It’s a tragic film that doesn’t wallow in its grief, but finds a lot of beauty in the quiet moments of life. Bentley’s gentle pacing that constantly evokes Malick is severely undercut by its heavy-handed narration. Another pass at the script might have made Train Dreams a serious contender amidst a fairly open year.

8. Bugonia – Yorgos Lanthimos is a polarizing director who has created a lot of thought-provoking original work. The Favourite and The Lobster are two of my favorites of the twenty-first century, but I was not a big fan of his last BP nominee, Poor Things, which I thought meandered a bit too much. Bugonia had a leaner runtime, and wonderful performances from Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons, but the narrative doesn’t have a lot of meat on its bone. Bugonia peters out long before its third act, which itself has some glaring issues.

9. Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro’s long-awaited passion project just didn’t do it for me. The special effects were lackluster. Del Toro captured Shelley’s aesthetic, but I didn’t feel her voice, particularly when the narrative shifted toward The Creature. Oscar Isaac, Jacob Elordi, and Mia Goth all put forth solid work here, but this was a rare miss from del Toro, an adaptation of a well-known book that doesn’t do much to justify its existence or its bloated 150-minute runtime.

10. F1 –  The Oscars have generally tried to have at least one blockbuster in the mix for Best Picture. This year has two legitimate box office hits, which bookend this list. F1 is a very entertaining remake of Top Gun: Maverick, which was once itself the token crowd-pleaser in the BP category. Brad Pitt delivered a compelling performance, even if you put aside the absurdity of a sixty-year-old professional race car driver. It was a lot of fun to see on the big screen, but I don’t think it has any business being in this race.